NFC Championship roundtable: How the Eagles or 49ers can reach Super Bowl LVII

The Philadelphia Eagles have been the NFC’s best team all season. The San Francisco 49ers have been the NFL’s hottest team over the last three months. It’s only fitting they will clash Sunday at 3 p.m. ET at Lincoln Financial Field in the NFC Championship Game.

These franchises have combined for five NFC title game appearances since 2017 — three for the 49ers, two for the Eagles — but haven’t faced each other in the playoffs since 1996. That was a 14-0 wild-card win by San Francisco.

With a Super Bowl appearance on the line this time, the Eagles are 2.5-point favorites, according to BetMGM. The 49ers, riding a 12-game winning streak, haven’t been an underdog since their Week 8 road win over the Los Angeles Rams.

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NFC and AFC Championship Games: What to know about 49ers-Eagles, Bengals-Chiefs

Will Jalen Hurts’ magical MVP candidate season include a trip to Glendale, Ariz., for Super Bowl LVII? Or will Brock Purdy become the first rookie quarterback to start in the big game?

Sunday’s NFC Championship looks to be an epic battle between two excellent teams, so The Athletic brought together our excellent team of beat writers — the 49ers’ Matt Barrows and David Lombardi and the Eagles’ Bo Wulf and Zach Berman — to break it all down.

The 49ers and Eagles had the top two defenses in the NFL this season in yards allowed per game. In this matchup alone, which unit do you trust more?

Matt Barrows (49ers): I trust the 49ers’ defense a little bit more. The Eagles are very good at all three levels. The 49ers are just a smidge better, and they have two of the best players in the league — edge rusher Nick Bosa and middle linebacker Fred Warner — at their respective positions. Warner is coming off perhaps his best game of the season while opponents are having to dedicate more and more resources each game toward stopping Bosa. In what promises to be a tight game, I like the defense that allowed just 77.7 rushing yards per contest (and no 100-yard rushers) and that tied for the league lead with 20 interceptions.

Bo Wulf (Eagles): I think the Niners clearly have the superior defense. The defensive lines are close to a wash, the Eagles have better cornerbacks and San Francisco has a significant edge up the middle. There’s no reason to doubt their status as the league’s best defense. But in the spirit of this question, “in this matchup alone,” I trust the Eagles’ defense more because offense matters more than defense and they have the benefit of playing an ever so slightly inferior offense.

One note on the Eagles’ run defense: Things changed significantly after the team signed Linval Joseph in the aftermath of its loss to Washington in Week 10 when Jordan Davis was on injured reserve. The Eagles’ splits from Weeks 1-10 and since Week 11, including the playoffs, are stark. Before Joseph, they had a defensive success rate of 54.8 percent on runs and a defensive EPA (expected points added) per rush of -0.07. Over the course of a full season, that would be good for 32nd in the league and 31st, respectively. Post-Joseph, they have a defensive success rate of 65.4 percent against runs and a defensive EPA per rush of 0.13. Those would be good for second and third in the league, respectively, over the course of a full season. I think Jonathan Gannon will be more concerned with surrendering explosive plays against play-action over the middle of the field than Christian McCaffrey and Elijah Mitchell running on them all afternoon.

David Lombardi (49ers): The 49ers have been the more balanced defense. They rank No. 2 against the run and No. 5 against the pass, per DVOA (defense-adjusted value over average). The Eagles, meanwhile, are No. 1 against the pass and No. 21 against the run. Philadelphia has perhaps the game’s most ferocious pass rush and very capable defensive backs, but that defense has a specialty: combating the aerial game.

The 49ers bring a very capable rushing attack to this matchup that threatens to test the Eagles’ most pronounced weakness, their run defense. Remember that Washington exposed this in its 32-21 win over Philadelphia around midseason. The Commanders ran a staggering 49 times in that game. The 49ers will also try to play this game on their terms, which would be outside of the Eagles’ comfort zone.

Zach Berman (Eagles): As mentioned, these are two of the best defenses in the NFL. Between the two, I’d lean toward the 49ers’ defense. They’re ranked higher and their personnel is better in the middle with Warner at linebacker and Talanoa Hufanga at safety. Both defensive lines are praiseworthy. The Eagles are superior at cornerback, but it’s the 49ers’ strength in the middle of the field that leads me to give them the edge that the data suggests. (DeMeco Ryans, a former Eagles linebacker, is also an outstanding defensive coordinator.)

However, the Eagles’ offense is superior to San Francisco’s. So the question then becomes is the dropoff from the 49ers’ defense to the Eagles’ defense nullified because of the units they’re facing? The answer will come Sunday. One variable to consider is the 49ers haven’t had as much exposure to quarterbacks who can run like Hurts. They played Justin Fields in Week 1 in heavy rains and before the Bears reinvented their offense, and that was the lone quarterback with double-digit carries against them. Hurts’ legs propel the Eagles’ rushing offense, making this a fascinating matchup against the top-ranked run defense.

From Christian McCaffrey and Deebo Samuel in San Francisco to A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith in Philadelphia, both Brock Purdy and Jalen Hurts have a star-studded cast of playmakers at their disposal. Which quarterback do you think will benefit the most from the offensive talent they’re surrounded by in this game?

Wulf: Maybe I’m parsing the question too closely, but I think Purdy benefits more from his playmakers than Hurts because he brings less to the table himself. If we gave both of these quarterbacks, say, the Giants’ supporting cast, I think Hurts would still be able to lead a league-average offense while Purdy would be in trouble. That said, if we consider the playmakers close to a wash, I do think the Eagles have an offensive line advantage, especially in the interior.

Lombardi: We can call this one a draw. It’s a team sport, and both quarterbacks have clearly benefited from the strong supporting casts around them. In fact, I see some real parallels between Philadelphia’s acquisition of Brown and the 49ers’ trade for McCaffrey: The former helped turbocharge Hurts’ career and the latter took the 49ers’ offense to the next level. Since Brown and McCaffrey are both gravitational forces on the field, both additions fundamentally reworked spacing dynamics for these offenses.

There’s a ton of talent on both sides of this title game. Expect high-level football — that’s what an NFC Championship matchup should be all about.

Berman: Hurts, because he’s the better quarterback. Purdy has been impressive during this winning streak, but Hurts is a bona fide MVP candidate. So take Hurts’ talent — through the air and on the ground — and two 1,000-yard receivers, a 1,000-yard running back and one of the best tight ends in the NFL, and Hurts will benefit more than Purdy because he uses them more effectively.

Barrows: Hurts — in the sense that the 49ers will be so preoccupied with stopping Smith, Dallas Goedert, Miles Sanders, et al., that it could create opportunities for the Eagles quarterback to gain yards on his own. A fourth-and-4 scenario Sunday against the Cowboys illustrates the problem. The 49ers blitzed Dak Prescott but were so aggressive that most of the pass rushers blew right past him and he ran freely for 9 yards. When the 49ers visited Philadelphia last year, Hurts was the game’s leading rusher with 82 yards and a 1-yard touchdown. The 49ers always talk about being mindful of running quarterbacks. But their aggressive, up-the-field style of pass rushing makes them inherently vulnerable.

If there’s going to be an unsung hero for your team in this game, who is the likeliest candidate? 

Lombardi: Right tackle Mike McGlinchey has been a positive difference-maker for the 49ers this season, despite even taking loads of unwarranted flak from the general public. Over the past two seasons, McGlinchey has addressed pass protection issues — which were his biggest weakness — to become an above-average pass blocker. That’s huge in the context of this game since Philadelphia’s defensive line leads the NFL by such a wide margin in sacks.

The 49ers stumbled in last season’s NFC title game in large part because of struggles at offensive tackle. McGlinchey was out with an injury and left tackle Trent Williams tried to play through a high ankle sprain. The Rams dominated San Francisco up front as a result. But now McGlinchey is back playing solid football and a healthy Williams has returned to All-Pro form, so the 49ers have a fighting chance against elite pass rushes. It wasn’t pretty against Dallas, but San Francisco ultimately got the job done and McGlinchey — who grew up in the Philadelphia suburbs — is key to its chances against the Eagles.

Berman: Brown and Smith will get most of the attention, but watch No. 3 receiver Quez Watkins in this game. As Bo pointed out in his Tuesday column, the 49ers rank No. 30 in the NFL against wide receivers who are not a team’s top two options and ranked No. 23 in defensive success rate against passes that traveled at least 20 yards downfield. Watkins’ numbers have gone down this season with the addition of Brown, although 10 of his 51 targets have traveled at least 20 yards in the air.  He had a 91-yard reception against the 49ers last season. Watkins has the speed to stretch the field (4.35-second 40-yard dash) and explosive plays will be critical for the Eagles.

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Early look at Eagles-49ers: Where does each team have an advantage?

Barrows: I suppose Mr. Irrelevant no longer fits this category after winning his seventh straight game on Sunday. So I’ll go with receiver Jauan Jennings. He’s very much the 49ers’ third wide receiver and finished fifth on the team in receiving yards. When Jennings is on the field, it’s a strong sign that the 49ers not only will run the ball but will run in his direction. Every now and then, however, the 49ers use that tendency to their advantage and send Jennings deep. He only has one touchdown this season. But he had two in the 49ers’ crucial Week 18 game in Los Angeles last season when the Rams overcommitted to taking away Samuel and the 49ers’ outside running game and lost track of Jennings.

Wulf: There is some uncertainty about how the Eagles will line up in the middle of the field defensively as Avonte Maddox tries to work himself back into the lineup with a toe injury. If things remain status quo, that will mean C.J. Gardner-Johnson covering the slot in sub packages with undrafted rookie Reed Blankenship covering safety, while Gardner-Johnson goes back to safety in the base defense. Given the relative uncertainty there, and the Niners’ offensive emphasis on using the middle of the field, the one person we know is going to see plenty of work is Marcus Epps, who has emerged as a quality player in his first full season as a starter. If the Eagles are going to bait Purdy into an interception, I can see Epps being the one around the ball.

What must happen for the 49ers/Eagles to win on Sunday and advance to Super Bowl LII?

Berman: The Eagles must play with an early lead to win this game. If they can take a lead into halftime, then it forces Purdy to become a dropback quarterback and the Eagles’ pass rushers — with a league-leading 70 sacks in the regular season — could pin their ears back and focus on the rush. That would also mean the crowd is into the game and could play a factor. And the Eagles can be effective running the ball in the second half, which has been a recipe for their 14-win season. Want proof? The Eagles lead the NFL with a point differential of plus-121 in the first half, 18 points greater than the No. 2 team (the 49ers).

Conversely, if the 49ers keep early points off the board and mirror their game against the Cowboys, it doesn’t play in the Eagles’ favor and would give San Francisco the advantage.

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Why the 49ers’ victory over Dallas is a model for beating the Eagles

Barrows: The 49ers led the league in turnover differential in the regular season, and they could use the sort of gifts Prescott offered them — over and over — in the divisional round. The 49ers’ defense is best when the opponent becomes one-dimensional, and a takeaway or two might put the Eagles in catch-up mode. The problem, of course, is that Hurts has been decidedly more stingy when it comes to gift-giving than Prescott has been. Hurts threw just six interceptions in the regular season and his 1.3 percent interception rate is the lowest of the four starting quarterbacks remaining in the playoffs.

Wulf: It sure seems like these two teams are evenly matched and are loaded with talent. So we know the margins are going to be thin. If the Eagles are going to win, maybe they can rely on two advantages that seem straightforward. They have the better quarterback and they have the more aggressive in-game manager. If Nick Sirianni rolls the dice to go for it in a short-yardage situation and is able to then capitalize on their red zone offense while Kyle Shanahan settles for three points across the field, maybe that’s the difference.

Lombardi: Only one Philadelphia O-lineman, left tackle Jordan Mailata, has been below-average in pass protection this season. The 49ers must leverage that relative weakness to disrupt Hurts and the Eagles’ offense. San Francisco’s pass rush isn’t the dominant force that it was during its 2019 season Super Bowl run, but Bosa remains one of the NFL’s best players, and a disciplined effort up front can position the 49ers’ elite linebackers and solid defensive backs to play on their terms against Philadelphia’s top-notch offense.

But ultimately, the 49ers will need a complementary effort. They must parlay potential defensive success into a downhill offensive attack. That means running the football against the Eagles’ run defense, which ranks No. 21 by DVOA. That will only be possible for the 49ers if their defense keeps Philadelphia’s offense in check and if Purdy and the passing attack gain sufficient offensive balance through the air for San Francisco’s run game to exploit the Eagles’ biggest weakness.

(Top illustration: Eamonn Dalton / The Athletic)