- What To Expect: A threat of severe storms from the Gulf Coast into the Southeast.
- When: Tuesday through Wednesday.
- Top Concerns: Tornadoes, possibly strong, damaging winds and flooding rainfall.
Severe thunderstorms in the South could spawn strong tornadoes and also produce damaging straight-line winds and heavy rainfall through Wednesday.
This round of severe weather is playing out on the warm side of Winter Storm Kassandra, and it could contain a dangerous threat of nighttime tornadoes.
(MORE: Why Nighttime Tornadoes Are Especially Dangerous)
Happening Now
Showers and thunderstorms are ongoing right now from portions of Texas into the lower-Mississippi Valley
A tornado watch has been issued for the middle and upper Texas coasts into southwest Louisiana until 6 p.m. CST. This watch includes Houston and Victoria, Texas, and Lake Charles, Louisiana.
There has been one tornado report so far near Eagle Lake, Texas, which located west of Houston.
Here’s a closer look at what to expect.
Timing Out The Threat
Severe weather is possible starting Tuesday afternoon, generally on the westernmost side of the threat area shown below in southeastern Texas, including from near Houston to Victoria.
Storms will track eastward from there along the Gulf Coast northward to around the Interstate 20 corridor in Louisiana, Mississippi and Alabama. Much of the threat in these areas could be in the evening and overnight hours.
That includes Lafayette and New Orleans, Louisiana; Hattiesburg and Biloxi, Mississippi; Mobile, Alabama; and Pensacola, Florida.
Tornadoes (possibly EF2+ strength) and damaging straight-line winds are the primary dangers, but heavy rainfall could also trigger flash flooding.
Be sure to have multiple ways to receive warning information like The Weather Channel app and NOAA’s WEA alerts if you live in the threat area, especially when you’re asleep.
(MORE: Your Phone Can Keep You Safe In Severe Weather)
There could be more severe weather in the Southeast Wednesday, but that will depend on how much unstable air is in place ahead of a cold front.
Damaging winds and a few tornadoes might accompany any storms that turn severe from northern Florida into Middle and South Georgia, portions of the Carolinas and southeastern Virginia.
Severe weather could be ongoing during the morning hours in the western part of the threat area shown below. More severe storms could form farther east later in the day and into the evening hours.
The Setup
Low pressure associated with Winter Storm Kassandra is forecast to intensify as it tracks from Texas to the Great Lakes through Wednesday. Southerly winds ahead of this system will help pull in Gulf of Mexico moisture as a strong jet stream blasts over the Deep South.
That combination of ingredients could allow storms to rotate and potentially produce tornadoes.
The Weather Company’s primary journalistic mission is to report on breaking weather news, the environment and the importance of science to our lives. This story does not necessarily represent the position of our parent company, IBM.
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